There are many new developments in wireless these days:
- The impact of open OS and device applications
- Industry reaction to the proposed rule changes and Android on iPhone issue in front of the FCC
- Development of LTE chips sets, devices and network deployment plans
- The impact on incumbent and new operators from the rapid increase in bandwidth traffic
- Mobile video services
- Acquisitions, partnerships and surrounding speculation
News worth commenting on comes up often to capture our attention and serve as fodder for analysis.
We think it is good every now and then to take a step back to ask questions about the basic assumptions that are helping to shape the industry and that have significant impact on individual companies and segments of the industry. Let us review a basic claim for WiMAX.
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Business managers and industry analysts must anticipate a range of possible scenarios from favorable robust growth and market position to radical restructuring of the status quo based on feasible market and economic conditions. Doing a what if 'brain salad surgery' extreme extrapolation can lead to a possible Armageddon business scenario for incumbent mobile wireless operators: Why discuss disaster scenarios? The incumbents have a huge advantage: massive cash flows and market position. That also leads to volume efficiencies for networks and services. A current winning situation.
So we thought we would take a leap off the edge of the cliff with this article which hypothesizes on the collapse of mobile operator revenues. Come to think of it, this has been contemplated by operators and suppliers for several years: what if the shift to IP networks and services were to result in operators becoming wholesalers of fat pipe broadband? Progress has been made to that removes some of the doubts that customers can be held to the flypaper of sticky packages and hot new devices. Nonetheless, the threat of open IP services running over the top on IP broadband leaves an uneasy feeling with mobile operators. The Shoe is Yet to Fall for Incumbent Operators as the US Economy is Restructured: Major international mobile telecommunications companies have developed into debt leveraged enterprises that are dependent on the huge cash flows generated from mobile phone subscription and services revenues. Debt coverage ratios that business schools would have once ruled as extremes have become the commonplace if not the norm. This has seemed tolerable given the leverage that licensed operators have in critical mobile phone service revenues. However, much of the control over cash flows stems from control over consumer spending that in turn derives from the mobile phone ecosystem that is now changing hands from operators to the combined device-OS-apps trilogy suppliers ushered in by the Apple iPhone. But this lock-in can be viewed as a transition to a flatter open supply environment now depicted by Google Android.
Last Updated (Tuesday, 08 September 2009 03:05)
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The primary difference between LTE and WiMAX are the diffferences in upbringging: like close cousins, there are deep blood ties between the two standards, (similar frameworks of technology), but the 'families' that have raised them are different: different goals and different means. But as each group has now prepared their standards to fulfill proposal requirements mandated by ITU, International Telecommunications Union, IMT-Advanced, the two standards are seeking jobs at the same huge 'factory' - the factory of open IP unified communications. Both WiMAX and LTE have evolved to become 'evolutionary frameworks' that are based on the same core wireless and network technologies. Many of the differences can be viewed as specializations upon that core theme: Last Updated (Sunday, 06 September 2009 15:24) |




















